PENNSYLVANIA JOKER – AT 7:11 P.M. ET:  Arlen Specter, formerly a member in so-so standing in the Republican Party, flipped not long ago and became a Democrat, apparently fearful that the GOP would not renominate him.  But a recent, respected poll shows Specter slipping behind Republican Pat Toomey:

A new Susquehanna Polling and Research survey runs counter to some other recent polling, and shows Republican Pat Toomey with a lead over Sen. Arlen Specter (D).

General Election Matchup (700 LVs, 3/3-6, MoE +/- 3.7%)
Toomey 42 (+1 vs. last poll, 10/7-12)
Specter 36 (-6)
Und 18 (+6)

Toomey leads among Republicans (75-9) and independents (40-30). Specter, just over 10 months after switching parties, has the support of only 59 percent of Democrats.

Pennsylvania is traditionally blue.  The GOP would like nothing more than to regain the seat lost when Specter switched parties.  It may happen, but Pennsylvania is one state where Republicans will have to fight to the finish to stay ahead.

March 15, 2010